Over the past five years, Ireland’s property stock has continued to expand, with more than 112,354 new addresses added to the national Eircode database, reaching a total of 2,321,352 properties. Yet, thousands of these newly built homes and businesses are in areas at risk from extreme coastal flood events.
This raises a critical question: how much of Ireland’s new building stock is vulnerable, and what scale of financial losses could arise in the event of a severe flood?
Property Growth and Risk Concentration
The Gamma Risk’s latest research shows that while the proportion of properties at risk has remained steady, the absolute volume of exposure continues to increase.
Of the 112,354 new addresses added to the Eircode database between 2020 and 2025, 4,774 are located in extreme coastal flood zones. These are not only residential but also commercial buildings, some of which carry outsized financial risk due to higher potential claim costs.
The result is a steady accumulation of exposure: today, more than 104,000 properties are in areas vulnerable to extreme coastal flooding. While proportionally unchanged, each additional at-risk property increases the potential severity of losses when events occur.
Geographic Hotspots of Concern
The distribution of this risk is far from uniform. Dublin is the clear epicentre, accounting for more than 34% of potential claims with a total exposure of €1.57 billion. The city’s coastal zones, including Dublin 1, 3, and 13, are particularly exposed, as are newly built developments along the northern coastline.
The Shannon Estuary also features prominently. Counties Clare and Limerick collectively contribute around €813 million in potential claims, with low-lying areas vulnerable to high flood depths. Louth, particularly Dundalk, is another hotspot, with projected claims of €433 million.
By contrast, counties such as Wicklow and Wexford, while home to large numbers of coastal properties, face relatively lower modelled flood depths, reducing their overall share of the national risk profile.
Financial Exposure and Claims Modelling
The scale of potential financial losses is striking. Under a worst-case extreme coastal flood scenario, where all at-risk properties are inundated, claims could total €4.51 billion.
The analysis further identifies 6,407 single-occupancy homes likely to be severely damaged, with flood depths exceeding 2.5 metres. The estimated rebuild cost for these homes is €2.2 billion, almost half of which is concentrated in Dublin (€1.1 billion) and Clare (€837 million).
The precedent set by Storm Babet in 2023, which caused €52 million in claims across just 900 properties in Midleton, highlights how quickly these costs can escalate in practice.
Looking Ahead
The findings make clear that climate-driven flooding is not a distant scenario but a present and escalating financial risk. The question for Ireland’s insurance sector is no longer if portfolios will be reshaped, but how quickly, and whether today’s practices are adapting fast enough.
For insurers, the challenge lies in moving beyond national averages to develop granular, location-specific risk models. insurers, the numbers emphasise the need for granular, location-specific risk modelling.
For lenders, the implications extend beyond immediate claims. Properties in high-risk areas represent not only higher near-term financial exposure but also longer-term asset and collateral risks, raising questions about the resilience of loan books in the face of physical climate impacts.
Ultimately, the financial sector’s role extends far beyond loss absorption. By guiding adaptation strategies, influencing development patterns, and supporting resilient investment, insurers and lenders have a central role in shaping how Ireland withstands the next generation of extreme coastal flood events.